Market Overview

What do all the signals say when read together? This page combines Fear & Greed score, insider activity, US liquidity conditions, and VIX into a single regime assessment. Updated from live data.

⚠ This is an observational framework — not investment advice. Regime labels describe historical patterns, not predictions. Past conditions do not guarantee future outcomes. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

CURRENT REGIME

Analyzing market signals...

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SIGNAL DASHBOARD

F&G SCORE

VELOCITY

VIX

INSIDER

LIQUIDITY

REGIME SPECTRUM

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ALL REGIME TYPES — click to expand

Liquidity Squeeze+

Fear + contracting liquidity

Fear combined with contracting liquidity — sentiment is weak and the macro backdrop is restrictive. The defining signal is the 4-week net liquidity trend. The regime ends when liquidity flattens or expands — visible first in the Fed Balance Sheet trend or a Treasury General Account drawdown.

Complacency with Headwinds+

Greed + insider selling + liquidity contracting

Three signals define this regime: F&G in greed, insider sentiment in sell-pressure, and 4-week liquidity contracting. Any one flipping ends the configuration. The underlying signals (insiders, liquidity) usually shift before sentiment does.

Capitulation Phase+

Extreme fear + insiders accumulating + liquidity not contracting

Extreme fear with insiders accumulating while liquidity is not contracting. The defining signal is C-suite buying at extreme-fear sentiment. The regime ends when F&G moves above 20 or insider buying tapers off — the C-Suite Conviction component on the insider page is the key indicator.

Fear with Macro Support+

Fear + expanding liquidity

F&G in fear territory while 4-week liquidity is expanding without insider sell-pressure. The regime ends when liquidity rolls over or insider activity flips bearish — both are visible in their respective panels before sentiment typically responds.

Recovery Phase+

Fear + rising velocity + insiders accumulating

Three signals define this regime: F&G in fear, velocity rising, and insider buying. Velocity is the most fragile — a stall in the F&G score over a few days flips the regime back. Watch the velocity indicator and whether insider buying continues.

Consolidation Phase+

Neutral sentiment + flat velocity

F&G in the 41-60 range with flat velocity. The breakout shows up first as velocity turning positive or negative — a 3-day move of 5+ points in either direction shifts the configuration. Insider score and liquidity components rarely lead during consolidation.

Neutral with Undercurrents+

Neutral surface + active insider or liquidity signals

F&G in the 41-60 range while insider activity or liquidity is moving. The regime ends when sentiment exits neutral territory or when the active undercurrent fades. Watch which side resolves first — the undercurrent tends to be the leading indicator when it persists.

Risk-On Environment+

Moderate greed + no headwinds

Three conditions hold: F&G in greed, insider score not in sell-pressure, and 4-week liquidity not contracting. The regime ends when any one flips. Insider activity turning bearish or liquidity rolling over usually leads — sentiment moves last.

Euphoria Zone+

Extreme greed + low VIX

F&G above 80 with VIX below normal range. VIX is typically the first component to move — a spike above 20 changes the configuration even if F&G stays elevated. Watch the VIX panel and the Market Volatility component of the F&G score.

BROADER SENTIMENT CONTEXT

No single number tells the whole story. These six gauges each measure a different corner of the market. When they agree, the signal is strong. When they disagree, that's where the real insight is.

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CBOE SKEWDAILY

Are big players quietly hedging against a crash? Higher SKEW = more protection being bought.

VIX TERM STRUCTUREDAILY

Short-term vs long-term fear. When the curve inverts, near-term panic is running ahead of the longer view.

NEWS SENTIMENTDAILY

The tone of financial headlines right now. Often moves differently from what markets are doing.

CONSUMER SENTIMENTMONTHLY · 1-MO LAG

How everyday people feel about jobs, prices, and spending. Long-run average is around 85.

FINANCIAL CONDITIONSWEEKLY

Is money flowing freely or is the system under stress? Below zero = easier than normal.

HIGH YIELD SPREADSDAILY

The premium investors demand for risky bonds. Tight = reaching for risk. Wide = smelling trouble.

What does "divergent" mean?

Sometimes the market signals above tell two different stories. Credit spreads and VIX might say "everything's fine" while consumer sentiment and news tone say "people are worried." That gap has a name — it's been called a vibecession: markets pricing one reality, people living another.

Neither side is wrong. They're measuring different things. But when they stay split for a while, something usually gives — either markets come down to match the mood, or the mood lifts to match markets.

When all six gauges agree, the reading is straightforward. When they disagree, pay closer attention. The divergence is where the signal lives.

Data from FearGreedChart.com 5-component index, SEC EDGAR Form 4 insider transactions, FRED US liquidity data, CBOE VIX and SKEW indices, Finnhub news sentiment, and University of Michigan / Chicago Fed surveys. Historical pattern matching uses F&G history since 2016 with S&P 500 forward returns computed from real price data. This is an observational tool for informational purposes only — not a prediction, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell securities.