What do all the signals say when read together? This page combines Fear & Greed score, insider activity, US liquidity conditions, and VIX into a single regime assessment. Updated from live data.
⚠ This is an observational framework — not investment advice. Regime labels describe historical patterns, not predictions. Past conditions do not guarantee future outcomes. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
S&P 500 forward returns after past zone entries with the same F&G score range, since 2016. Matched by sentiment zone, not regime.
Liquidity Squeeze+
Fear + contracting liquidity
Fear combined with contracting liquidity — the Fed is draining, not supporting. Historically, recoveries are slower when liquidity is tightening.
Complacency with Headwinds+
Greed + insider selling + liquidity contracting
Markets are greedy but insiders are selling and liquidity is shrinking. A divergence between sentiment and fundamentals that has preceded corrections in past episodes.
Capitulation Phase+
Extreme fear + insiders accumulating + liquidity not contracting
Historically associated with market lows — insiders accumulating while sentiment is deeply negative. Past episodes showed above-average forward sentiment recovery.
Fear with Macro Support+
Fear + expanding liquidity
Markets are fearful but liquidity is expanding — the macro backdrop supports recovery. Past episodes often resolved to the upside within weeks.
Recovery Phase+
Fear + rising velocity + insiders accumulating
Sentiment recovering from fear while insiders are accumulating. Velocity turning positive — early-stage recoveries with insider confirmation have historically shown follow-through.
Consolidation Phase+
Neutral sentiment + flat velocity
Range-bound markets digesting recent moves. No strong directional conviction. Watch for a breakout in velocity or a shift in insider/liquidity signals.
Neutral with Undercurrents+
Neutral surface + active insider or liquidity signals
Markets look calm but signals underneath are active. Neutral sentiment masking insider or liquidity shifts often precedes a decisive move.
Risk-On Environment+
Moderate greed + no headwinds
The most common backdrop for sustained positive sentiment. No insider selling pressure, no liquidity headwinds. Conditions favor continuation until signals shift.
Euphoria Zone+
Extreme greed + low VIX
Extreme greed with suppressed volatility — markets pricing in perfection. Past episodes have preceded pullbacks, though timing is unpredictable.
Data from FearGreedChart.com 5-component index, OpenInsider.com insider transactions, FRED US liquidity data, and CBOE VIX. Historical pattern matching uses F&G history since 2016 with S&P 500 forward returns computed from real price data. This is an observational tool for informational purposes only — not a prediction, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell securities.