Analysis

Market overview

Every signal, read together as one market regime.

About this page

This page combines the Fear & Greed score, insider activity, US liquidity conditions and the VIX into a single regime assessment, updated from live data.

It is an observational framework, not investment advice. Regime labels describe historical patterns, not predictions. Past conditions do not guarantee future outcomes. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Data from the FearGreedChart.com 5-component index, SEC EDGAR Form 4 insider transactions, FRED US liquidity data, CBOE VIX and SKEW indices, Finnhub news sentiment, and University of Michigan / Chicago Fed surveys.

Current regime

Signal dashboard

How to read this

Fear & Greed score: The index today, 0 to 100.
Velocity: How far the score moved over the past three sessions.
VIX: Expected stock-market volatility over the next 30 days.
Insider: SEC Form 4 filings: how company insiders are buying against selling.
Liquidity: The Fed’s balance sheet minus the Treasury account and reverse repo, and which way it is trending.

The small bar beside each reading shows which way it leans: fear, neutral or greed.

All regime types

From risk-off to risk-on. Open one to see what defines it.

Liquidity Squeeze

Defined by: Fear + contracting liquidity

Fear combined with contracting liquidity — sentiment is weak and the macro backdrop is restrictive. The defining signal is the 4-week net liquidity trend. The regime ends when liquidity flattens or expands — visible first in the Fed Balance Sheet trend or a Treasury General Account drawdown.

Capitulation Phase

Defined by: Extreme fear + insiders accumulating + liquidity not contracting

Extreme fear with insiders accumulating while liquidity is not contracting. The defining signal is C-suite buying at extreme-fear sentiment. The regime ends when F&G moves above 20 or insider buying tapers off — the C-Suite Conviction component on the insider page is the key indicator.

Complacency with Headwinds

Defined by: Greed + insider selling + liquidity contracting

Three signals define this regime: F&G in greed, insider sentiment in sell-pressure, and 4-week liquidity contracting. Any one flipping ends the configuration. The underlying signals (insiders, liquidity) usually shift before sentiment does.

Fear with Macro Support

Defined by: Fear + expanding liquidity

F&G in fear territory while 4-week liquidity is expanding without insider sell-pressure. The regime ends when liquidity rolls over or insider activity flips bearish — both are visible in their respective panels before sentiment typically responds.

Recovery Phase

Defined by: Fear + rising velocity + insiders accumulating

Three signals define this regime: F&G in fear, velocity rising, and insider buying. Velocity is the most fragile — a stall in the F&G score over a few days flips the regime back. Watch the velocity indicator and whether insider buying continues.

Consolidation Phase

Defined by: Neutral sentiment + flat velocity

F&G in the 41-60 range with flat velocity. The breakout shows up first as velocity turning positive or negative — a 3-day move of 5+ points in either direction shifts the configuration. Insider score and liquidity components rarely lead during consolidation.

Neutral with Undercurrents

Defined by: Neutral surface + active insider or liquidity signals

F&G in the 41-60 range while insider activity or liquidity is moving. The regime ends when sentiment exits neutral territory or when the active undercurrent fades. Watch which side resolves first — the undercurrent tends to be the leading indicator when it persists.

Risk-On Environment

Defined by: Moderate greed + no headwinds

Three conditions hold: F&G in greed, insider score not in sell-pressure, and 4-week liquidity not contracting. The regime ends when any one flips. Insider activity turning bearish or liquidity rolling over usually leads — sentiment moves last.

Euphoria Zone

Defined by: Extreme greed + low VIX

F&G above 80 with VIX below normal range. VIX is typically the first component to move — a spike above 20 changes the configuration even if F&G stays elevated. Watch the VIX panel and the Market Volatility component of the F&G score.

Broader sentiment context

What these gauges measure

CBOE SKEW: How much big players pay to hedge against a crash. Higher means more protection is being bought.
VIX term structure: Short-term fear against the three-month view. When the curve inverts, near-term panic is running ahead.
News sentiment: The tone of financial headlines. It often moves differently from what markets are doing.
Consumer sentiment: How everyday people feel about jobs, prices and spending. The long-run average is around 85. Published monthly, a month behind.
Financial conditions: Whether money is flowing freely or the system is under stress. Below zero is easier than normal. Weekly.
High yield spreads: The premium investors demand for risky bonds. Tight means reaching for risk; wide means caution.

The bar shows how many gauges lean each way. When they agree, the reading is clear; when they split, the gap is worth knowing about.

Sometimes these gauges tell two different stories. Credit spreads and the VIX might say “everything’s fine” while consumer sentiment and news tone say “people are worried.” That gap has been called a vibecession: markets pricing one reality, people living another.

Neither side is wrong. They’re measuring different things.